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美联储大BOSS耶伦发声,加息大棒终将落下

2016-11-19 那角落 >>央行观察

文 \陈典 VantageFX首席分析师


在市场已经初步消化了特朗普所公布的执政方针后,整体金融市场逐渐将目光转向了近在咫尺的美联储12月议息会议。在近期美联储频发发言的情况下,投资者也希望透过各位官员的讲话找寻加息的蛛丝马迹。

在这一情况下,昨晚美联储主席耶伦在国会听证会上的发言就显得尤为关键,成为了市场关注的焦点。在这一发言中最关键的一句话是an increase(hike) could well become appropriate relatively soon。这也进一步证实了市场对于12月美联储加息的猜测,只要接下来的经济数据不出现令人意外的恶化(个人认为不可能出现能够推迟加息的坏数据),那么12月的加息基本上就是板上钉钉的事情了。

不过在证实了12月的加息预期之外,耶伦本次的讲话还是维持了较为谨慎的态度。在市场由于特朗普的上台而预计未来通胀水平会迅速上行,美债收益率也水涨船高的情况下,耶伦仍然维持着不急不缓的加息论调。(The FOMC continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time)。

最后,在之后的问答环节中,耶伦表示希望政策制定者在制定财政刺激措施时充分考虑到对通胀和生产率的影响,并且她强调仍需要见到更多的关于特朗普的执政措施。(When crafting a fiscal package, Yellen asks lawmakers to consider productivity and inflation consequences as first order.)

通过这一讲话我们可以确定,就算是对于相当鸽派的耶伦,12月的加息也是箭在弦上的状态。不过对于未来的加息节奏,耶伦目前的想法和市场还有一定差距:在特朗普的具体政策出台前,耶伦并不会改变自己缓慢、渐进的加息节奏。另外,从会后的问答中可以看出,联储主席也在担心过大的财政刺激手段会对经济造成不良影响。这样看来,受制于目前大额的财政赤字和已经回升的利率,最终特朗普政府出台的刺激方案也有差于预期的可能。

对于市场来讲,本次耶伦对于加息的态度仍显谨慎,这也给重仓押注美元继续走强的投资者提了醒。虽然我们也认为美元的长期强势已经开始,但是在近期美元大幅走强而缺乏具体财政政策细节的情况下,存在回调的风险,需控制好仓位。而对于此前错过了美元涨势的投资者,近期美元可能的调整则有望提供较好的入场点位。Long Live The USD.

附:耶伦关于货币政策的讲话全文


Monetary Policy


I will turn now to the implications of recent economic developments and the economic outlook for monetary policy. The stance of monetary policy has supported improvement in the labor market this year, along with a return of inflation toward the FOMC"s 2 percent objective. In September, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent and stated that, while the case for an increase in the target range had strengthened, it would, for the time being, wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.


At our meeting earlier this month,the Committee judged that the case for an increase in the target range had continued to strengthen and that such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon if incoming data provide some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee"s objectives.This judgment recognized that progress in the labor market has continued and that economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. And inflation, while still below the Committee"s 2 percent objective, has increased somewhat since earlier this year.


Furthermore, the Committee judged that near-term risks to the outlook were roughly balanced.


Waiting for further evidence does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Rather, with the unemployment rate remaining steady this year despite above-trend job gains, and with inflation continuing to run below its target, the Committee judged that there was somewhat more room for the labor market to improve on a sustainable basis than the Committee had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Nonetheless, the Committee must remain forward looking in setting monetary policy. Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee"s longer-run policy goals. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability.


The FOMC continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability. This assessment is based on the view that the neutral federal funds rate--meaning the rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel--appears to be currently quite low by historical standards. Consistent with this view, growth in aggregate spending has been moderate in recent years despite support from the low level of the federal funds rate and the Federal Reserve"s large holdings of longer-term securities. With the federal funds rate currently only somewhat below estimates of the neutral rate, the stance of monetary policy is likely moderately accommodative, which is appropriate to foster further progress toward the FOMC"s objectives. But because monetary policy is only moderately accommodative, the risk of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited, and gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years.


Of course, the economic outlook is inherently uncertain, and, as always, the appropriate path for the federal funds rate will change in response to changes to the outlook and associated risks.



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